Cold winter = good butterfly summer 2010?

[Susie]

So, is it likely that 2010 is going to be another corker of a year for butterflies if this cold weather keeps up? If the parasites are being bumped off, mould kept at bay and the hibernators not being woken early from their slumber is this good news?

Does anyone know how things are looking over the Atlas Mountains? Is rainful high; can we expect another summer of the painted lady?

[Padfield]

I love the picture, Susie! It brought a big smile to my face!

I think a good, hard winter is generally a favourable thing for the butterflies, keeping their hibernation profound. I don't know at what stage the temperatures become dangerous for survival but I'd be surprised if that stage were reached in England, surrounded by sea.

I'll ask my Moroccan students to keep me posted on conditions there. The green spring was the talk of the town in Marrakesh last year, apparently...

Guy

[Susie]

Thanks, Guy, that would be interesting.

I can't take credit for the picture, the butterfly is mine but the rest of it is down to the wizardry and skill of Michael Blencowe.

[Neil Hulme]

Hi Susie,
Dangerous prediction to make - but I'm already getting excited about the prospects for 2010, based on this cold weather. The 2008/2009 more-'traditional' winter did great things in assisting some of our species to recover. Most notable 'winner' was the Wall Brown (which hates warm, wet winters) - I haven't seen so many Wall for more than a decade (20-30 in a day on numerous Sussex sites)! The species is currently under research, as reasons for its decline are unclear. But its reaction to the first 'proper' winter in ages provides strong circumstantial evidence. As you say - hard winters suppress the effects of moulds, parasites, pathogens and probably reduce predation by small mammals, by freezing them into their hidey-holes . Let's hope things go to plan - and look forward to a good season
Neil

[Lee Hurrell]

ha ha! Brilliant picture Susie (and Michael)

Personally I can't wait for Spring. I calculated yesterday it should be less than 10 weeks now until the first Whites of the year, plus the hibernators before them of course! (16th March 2009 - male Small White, Horsenden Hill, Middlesex).

Cheers

Lee

[Vince Massimo]

I'm still chuckling thinking about the rest of Michael's presentation at the the Sussex AGM. That was not a afternoon that will soon be forgotten

This would make a good entry in this month's photo competition. Do you think Michael could be persuaded to enter it Susie? (Seems a shame to waste it)

Cheers,

Vince

[Susie]

Michael Blencowe is an absolute gem and his presentation at the Sussex BC AGM was indeed a highlight I won't forget in a very long time. He's a very clever chap indeed and so funny too. It's not often you can say that an AGM is fun to go to but with Sussex Kipper at the helm the Sussex branch of BC has gone from strength to strength and I look forward to the meetings immensely. I am looking forward to next year's raffle already; shame the dip dish has gone.

As for the photo, I don't think Michael is a member of this group. Perhaps someone should ask him.

[Denise]

Fantastic stuff Susie.
Well done girl, on posting it and bringing a smile to all our faces on this cold and snowy day.

Denise

[Gruditch]

So, is it likely that 2010 is going to be another corker of a year for butterflies if this cold weather keeps up? If the parasites are being bumped off, mould kept at bay and the hibernators not being woken early from their slumber is this good news?

Just thinking the same thing this morning, I just hope the wettest November on record hasn't already ruined it.

Regards Grudith

[Susie]

thanks, denise.

It has just started snowing heavily here

[David M]

I was surprised at butterfly numbers in 2009 given the appalling summers we had in 07 and 08, but the more knowledgeable on here did mention that cold weather plays a part in reducing the numbers of spring predators that traditionally feast on the varying stages of butterfly development.

One can only hope that this year will continue in the same vein, as it has already been colder than last year's freezing January. Wouldn't it be great if we could get a warm mid-April to early June? One would expect a bumper crop of butterflies if that were the case.

[Denise]

We live in hope David.
I, for one can't wait for the spring and the new butterfly season. I've got serious withdraw.
It's still snowing here Susie. We're expecting quite a lot tonight, but I think that Gary and Lisa will get more.

Denise

[Neil Hulme]

Not fair Denise, Susie etc - no snow here, just rain - toys out of pram!
Neil

[Gruditch]

I think that Gary and Lisa will get more.

Poo, overnight we only got 2"of the 12-18" predicted.

Regards Gruditch

[Susie]

a fair few inches of snow here now, the kids' schools are closed so looks like a day of building snowmen, sledging and hot chocolate by the log burner!

[Pete Eeles]

We've got 20cms (around 8 inches) of snow here in west Berks. Schools are closed so an extra day's holiday for our youngest!

Although I discovered one disadvantage of working in the IT industry - you can still work, even when stuck at home

Have fun everyone!

Cheers,

- Pete

[Denise]

About 5" of snow here this morning in my garden, but it's still snowing and it's blooming cold.
Be careful what you wish for Neil, you just might get it.

Denise

[Neil Hulme]

Hi Denise,
My petulant behaviour paid off - we got snow! I love the stuff - and like Pete, I work from home. Working this morning.... then out to pick snowball fights this afternoon. Good 'arm' from years of cricket. Even managed to take on and beat a group of 6 kids last winter. Bosh, bosh, bosh!!
Neil

[Piers]

I'm working from home today too!

I made a valiant attempt to reach the office but instead lost control of the car and ploughed (backwards) through a fence into a field 200 yards from my house. Good old rear wheel drive, and thank goodness I had the good sense to attempt the journey in my girl friends' car and not my own cherished steed!! Transpired that the offices had been closed today anyway..!

Whether or not next year is a good butterfly summer depends a lot on the weather in the spring. Species such as the wall, the chalkhill blue, and (especially) the grayling are highly susceptible to damp weather during the final instars of larval development. Whether it is the damp per se or the mould and fungal growths associated with these conditions need further research. Other factors are of course sward length and sward density relative to the immediate microclimate. I am involved in some research pertaining to this with reference to the grayling, particularly on the inland chalk and limestone localities where this species clings on.

Felix.
Ps. Happy New Year to all. I have been out of action for a while; Santa was good enough to bring me the Norovirus for Christmas which knocked me out for a couple of weeks. Still, I am one of the few who actually lost weight over the festive season!

[Dave McCormick]

What I am wondering is that the tempretures being colder than it has been in quite a few years, will the butterflies be used to tempreture to be able to survive the colder weather than normal?