It's official...

[David M]

...warmest summer ever in Europe:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-62833937

With every passing year, I am growing more and more convinced that we can't (and won't) reverse this trend. I dread to think what things will be like in another 40-50 years (maybe less)!

Thank God I won't be here!

[selbypaul]

The nations of the world are aiming for 2 degrees Centigrade above levels in 1880, and we are already suffering the significant effects of 1 degree above that level.

All the projections show that the 2 degree target will be missed, and that 3 to 4 degrees is more likely, especially with the world population increasing as fast as it is.

The only hope for the planet and our wildlife is that some sort of "natural planetary stabilisation mechanism" somehow and unexpectedly significantly reduces the human population of the planet.

Either way, like you say, the world won't be a good place to live in, even in as little as 20 years time. We need to make the most of it while we can!

[Jack Harrison]

...somehow and unexpectedly significantly reduces the human population of the planet.

That should have been Covid but the opportunity was missed.

Jack

[David M]

...The only hope for the planet and our wildlife is that some sort of "natural planetary stabilisation mechanism" somehow and unexpectedly significantly reduces the human population of the planet.

Vladimir Putin

Either way, like you say, the world won't be a good place to live in, even in as little as 20 years time. We need to make the most of it while we can!

It's becoming less good already, Paul. In my lifetime, the population has risen from 3.5 billion to 8 billion. If I live till I'm 80, it'll probably be closing in on 10 billion. All those additional billions need to be fed, housed and provided with energy, meaning ever more of the planet's resources get appropriated.

I don't think a slow and progressive change to 'greener' forms of energy can compensate for this growth. We've had this pressure to reduce our carbon footprints for well over a decade but globally, the consumption of oil and gas keeps increasing.

The best realistic hope is via hydrogen isotope fusion, but work was stopped on ITER's tokamak reactor in southern France a few months ago due to safety concerns. Even if everything is deemed okay, it'll be 2035 before it's fuelled with the tritium isotope it needs and even then no-one yet knows whether it'll generate more energy that it consumes.

I'm just glad I'm on my way out, and not on my way in!

[Andy02]

I wonder if anyone has views on this. We have just witnessed one of the hottest , driest , longest spells of summer weather in Europe , following on from 2-3 years where Carbon emissions were at their lowest due to COVID restrictions and inactivity. I have not heard a scientific view on this. Does it mean that emission targets will not make any difference now or was it that the sudden drop in emissions had an adverse effect on this summers weather. It would be interesting to know if any research has been carried out or what the conclusions were.

[bugboy]

I wonder if anyone has views on this. We have just witnessed one of the hottest , driest , longest spells of summer weather in Europe , following on from 2-3 years where Carbon emissions were at their lowest due to COVID restrictions and inactivity. I have not heard a scientific view on this. Does it mean that emission targets will not make any difference now or was it that the sudden drop in emissions had an adverse effect on this summers weather. It would be interesting to know if any research has been carried out or what the conclusions were.

As I understand it a 2 year dip in emissions was considered little more than a drop in the ocean given the 150 odd years of emissions already produced.

[David M]

I guess that the contraction in emissions due largely to Covid was akin to pulling the plug out of the bath for 2 minutes whilst the taps were still running at full throttle.

[selbypaul]

I wonder if anyone has views on this. We have just witnessed one of the hottest , driest , longest spells of summer weather in Europe , following on from 2-3 years where Carbon emissions were at their lowest due to COVID restrictions and inactivity. I have not heard a scientific view on this. Does it mean that emission targets will not make any difference now or was it that the sudden drop in emissions had an adverse effect on this summers weather. It would be interesting to know if any research has been carried out or what the conclusions were.

It's all to do with the oceans. They've been absorbing all that extra heat for many years, and it is quite cyclical in terms of what depth and specific geographic location the higher temperatures are, at any one point of time. This year, the high ocean temperatures have been in the right location and right depth of the oceans to generate weather patterns that led to those record European temperatures.

It's obviously way more complicated than that, but at a high level, what I say is pretty accurate.

[Andy02]

Thanks Paul. It’s an interesting subject . My views are that a 10% drop in world population would perhaps be better than many of the Green energy initiatives..But what do I know.

[David M]

Population growth is slowing down (and even reversing) in many nations. However, that brings a new set of problems, with a progressively ageing population profile which, if it continues, will mean at some point there won't be sufficient active, wealth and tax generating individuals to pay for the support required by the elderly.

The only solution I can see is genetic engineering.