Small Tortoiseshell Demonstrating BouncebackabilityIt's great to see so many Small Tortoiseshells around this year and, like many others in the South, I'm seeing them in numbers (and locations) that I haven't done so for many years.
In response to some of the questions posed by Lee Hurrell (Sightings - 'Small Tortoiseshells' thread) - there may be a numbers of factors at work here Lee.
Firstly, an explanation of your observation of 'a higher number of STs this spring than can be explained by the
apparently lower numbers seen late last autumn'. The post-hibernator butterflies emerge in spring, mate, and their offspring are around through June, July and August. These butterflies mate and give rise to another emergence of adults, which are on the wing through late summer and autumn. Soon after these second brood adults start emerging (which may be over a quite prolonged period of several months), some individuals start tucking themselves away, well in advance of late autumn/winter, and largely un-noticed. So their 'disappearance' from the countryside is a greatly staggered event, with a relatively modest number being active and on the wing at any given time from late August onwards. This phenomenon can also be 'exaggerated' by the fact that we are now seeing a partial third brood of STs in the South, meaning an additional but small emergence of adults very late in the year. Also, (particularly further North and following long, hard winters such as 08/09 and 09/10) a few of the adults that emerge in mid summer (first brood) go straight into hibernation, rather than mate 'this' year. This is a good survival strategy at species level, in the same way that a small percentage of pupae of other species will 'hold back' from emerging until the following year - a little bit of 'insurance' against particularly poor years.
Whereas the STs from a 'previous' year have gone into hibernation over a very prolonged timeframe, when spring arrives they all emerge over a very short period - and are all on the wing at the same time. So this gives the impression of a much higher number than could be explained by the numbers seen at any given time through the preceding late summer/autumn. The same effect can often be seen with Peacocks, which start to tuck themselves away in August. With fewer species around in the spring, we also tend to notice these particular butterflies more. If over-winter survival rates are particularly high (my second point), the whole effect becomes even more obvious.
The over-winter survival rate of STs (and other species) is undoubtedly high this year. This will have been helped by the cold weather, which reduces losses through moulds, parasites, pathogens and some predators. The situation with ST may be even more complex. Although research into the effects of the parasitoid
Sturmia bella is ongoing (see photo of a project 'release'), and Owen Lewis' team is yet to make a 'final judgement', this tachinid does seem to have exacerbated the decline of the species. We still don't know the over-wintering strategy of the fly, but being a 'warm climate invader', it might not have thought very much of the cold 08/09 winter! With the 09/10 winter being even colder, we might be seeing an 'upward spiral' and I'm optimistic that numbers might be even higher next year, perhaps returning to the level that many of us have not experienced since our youth!
However, in the longer-term, it is possible that
S. bella might start developing a tolerance to colder winters, and we might have a long re-run of warmer, damper winters. This might result in another 'crash' in the future. This cyclicity has always, and will always, affect the fortunes of some of our butterflies.